Kurt Vonnegut called them "the Guessers"—the variously qualified men and women who run our governments and our institutions who make guesses on which our lives largely depend.

The Guessers make guesses about global warming, guesses about nuclear threats ... and in the case of a dam in Mosul, Iraq, apparently ... guesses about whether a creaky dam will or won't break, and how many of a potential half-million people will drown if it does.

The Guessers in this case—American and Iraqi officials—have been debating for some time what to do about this dam, according to the Washington Post:

"The debate has taken place largely out of public view because both Iraqi and U.S. Embassy officials have refused to discuss the details of safety studies--commissioned by the U.S. government for at least $6 million--so as not to frighten Iraqi citizens."

Because if you frighten the citizens, the Guessers can't guess in piece, or in private. And if they guess in public and guess wrong, the Guessers get their guessing privileges taken away.

But not before some thousands of people die.